Fun yet likely or not? List all the current electoral seats held by the duopoly. Labor & Liberal seats. And list them with the safest at the top going down to marginal and highly in doubt.
You'd expect Colin Barnett's seat to be somewhere near the top of the Liberal's list and Mark McGowan somewhere near the top of Labor's list and it'd scale downwards. Much of the order or rankings would probably be guesswork unless you rank them on last election's prowess. Its lower down the list seats that interest me and those owned by the crossbenches/minor parties.
It means that for forming government, there's possibly 2 battlegrounds and to some extent the impact of the "Deplorable Vote" is going to have some sort of effect.
There's the 2nd Tier parties & then there's the 3rd Tier. Third tier being the Independents or the candidates from the very minor parties who rarely if ever win a seat but do hold small preferences. They're often so minor an influence that they aren't chased after for a preference deal. That may remain the case and they may not be chased for anything at all unless they win their seat because its possible the next WA Parliament could be a close call. One smart commentator said that even though the election is close, its 3 months out and it could be the longest 3 months prediction wise. He went onto say it could be a landslide or a hair splitting photo finish come March with his prediction now being a toss of the coin.
Perhaps the 3rd Tier candidates will have little effect at all and perhaps the big battlefield will be the "Deplorable Voters" who like Brexit, Trump, Australian Federal Election and the Orange By-election delivered results no one predicted. The "Deplorable" might tip out a small number of safe seats in the metro areas.
Second battlefield might be non metropolitan seats in both Lower & Upper Houses of WA's Parliament. The effect of the deplorables I think is sensed by more than a few groups and probably the driving motivation of Pauline Hanson's One Nation (PHON) to run as many candidates as possible in the WA election.
The PHON may have enough time to get over the damaging Rodney Culleton effect. PHON has one other problem though, its very eastern states run and managed. Pauline came over to oversee the pre-selection process and personally vet aspiring candidates. Does Pauline have a position on WA's unfair slice of the GST, on the timely Mining rental agreement update or the sale of Western Power. There's one she has commented on (and I'll have to look for the others) and that's the Mining Rental Fee. She opposes it but I think she's badly misread the majority sentiment in WA. Her eastern states bias may undo some of her desired vote. And where do their preferences go? At a guess, the safer bet would be the Liberal Party.
The Shooters Fishers & Farmers Party. Well, hot on the back of the Orange By-election the SFFP have quite rightly got new found confidence. They currently have 2 good MPs and at very very worst they could maintain that number. They're regionally focused, outdoors focused but do seem to have very Liberal Party leanings on some issues. Stab in the dark betting would see them probably put preferences to the Liberal Party. If the deplorables vote & Tier 2 party preferences are likely to have a big impact, then its worth remembering that SFFP are likely to be running both Lower & Upper House candidates.
In the eastern states the SFFP & the Nationals are cat n dog despite some areas of common ground. They may agree on some issues, including a responsible approach to firearms legislation but they're usually vying for the same seats and gloves are off. In the eastern states the SFFP want to replace the Nats not partner with them.
The NatsWA have a fight on their hands, yet they seem to be at every election and they tend to roll up their sleeves and dig in. Brendon Grylls has to some extent returned the Nats to the old "blood nose politics" angle which has been lost from their tool kit for a very long time. Thing is, if the Nationals aim is to effect good change they have to have a presence in cabinet, therefore they have to help form government in a coalition or partnership with the Liberals. More than a few times, the Liberals needed them. NatsWA will most likely preference the Liberals as well. In the seats where Liberals come 3rd place in the count, the Nationals should expect to be more positive and gain Liberal preferences. Where its close between Liberal & Nationals, the PHON & SFFP preferences could get Libs over the line. In fact wherever the Libs poll 1st or 2nd place, they could still win with preferences from any or all of the three 2nd tier parties.
Or the unthinkable might happen...
The NatsWA & the SFFP could shock everyone and form a partnership before any LNP coalition/partnership of a traditional sense is discussed. SFFP have the awkward position of knowing that both parties in the duopoly, Liberal & Labor are keen to see firearms legislation clamp down harder and harder. PHON are out to lunch yet NatsWA have candidates looking and assessing it. Whether the Nats get an actual firearms policy or not is debatable but both SFFP & Nats are rural, regional keen, both are firearms sensible (ones I've spoken with), both industry & agricultural focused, both jobs focused and strangely both might preference the Liberals. If they don't get a partnership agreement sorted they could cancel each other out at the next election and deliver one or two crucial seats to the Liberal party...along with the PHON preferences.
This returns us to the original guess...it'll be a landslide or close as a cut throat razor. Or somewhere in the middle, preferences might deliver seats to the major parties.
Now the best thing for rural WA, in my mind at least, would be to see a SFFP/NatsWA partnership agreement/preference deal. The likelihood?
Well...
Its always possible, but it would be a huge political shock because it would be very unexpected. If the eastern states influence is too great or the norm then the chances of a SFFP/NatsWA partnership will be roughly the same as a paper dog chasing an asbestos cat through hell.
I'm hoping for some sort of SFFP/NatsWA alliance but suspect it might not happen. Irony being, their own respective zeal to beat each other might help deliver more seats to the Liberal Party.
I've had one Pollie Scratchy bet...against my better judgement. Not making another but I'm hoping that in a world of vast political differences the Nats & the SFFP in WA realise they can make a difference or they'll probably inadvertently deliver seats to the Liberals.
Then there's the other thing...that maybe the real winners at the next election will be those elected but who are in opposition. The real losers may well be all of us if we don't see some good strong policies and smart strategic statesman like vision.
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