Its been a funny few weeks & several things all met at a cross roads that had me thinking sideways again.
A wealthy grazier I know, who I often talk politics with offered me a big chunk of money to start a political party. One that is centred on WA Seceding from the rest of Australia. I declined politely but took it on board. Days later mentioned it in passing to a well heeled businessman and he said he'd match it dollar for dollar, perhaps more. I went from thinking folly to curious thinking and in doing so mentioned to another farmer who is very much a political junky. He said he thought it was an idea of great merit and said he's pretty sure more dollar for dollar people would step up if I got serious.
Ok now it wasn't funny. I wasn't flattered, it wasn't about me its about the state of play in Australian politics that has caused the initial offer & talking about it to others clearly plugs into others with similar receptors. That or its a good idea, but its not about me, its the idea that has merit that needs checking.
Then today a person from a political party asked if I'd be interested in standing in the next State Election. OK now I'm beginning to wonder what is going on, but fact remains, its not me, not about me, its about the current turbulent state of play in WA & Federal politics. I don't think we've seen a more dysfunctional senate or at least never seen so many dud senators wielding such disproportionate levels of clout.
Issues, like the big issues aren't so dissimilar between parties. There's the big core issues. health, law & order, the budget, the debt, its serviceability, the economy, jobs, the future. Everyone wants improvement, everyone wants to capitalise on whatever opportunities they think are there. Difference is what they think the opportunities are & how improvements should be made.
Its the Tier 2 & 3 issues where I think protest votes will probably centre and where a small handful of seats may be tilted and possibly toppled. There's a swag of Tier 2 issues and fact is, for some folk these aren't Tier 2 or 3, they're major issues. Everyone has a view, some differ from mainstream but telecommunications, mobile coverage, internet line speed & cost, housing affordability, GM Crops, firearm regulations, same sex marriage, euthanasia, foreign ownership of farms/stations, selling of public assets...
There's these and a few others that are far more contentious issues. So much so I'm not likely to mention some are the ones that will fuel the protest vote. Those folk with the protest vote are those who are now looking, pointing fingers and uttering "bloody duopoly".
Its not just immigration that delivered seats to One Nation in the federal parliament. I'm not 100% sure what got Derryn Hinch elected exactly but generally it was a Trump like effort on his part to cash in on a protest vote pay out. And as for Senator Culleton, well I'm still wondering what the hell happened there and I guess Pauline Hanson is thinking and wondering what the hell she was thinking. I do know one Albany local who sought Pauline out in the main street when she visited here during the Federal campaign. He said his words to her were "Love your work but what's with picking Rodney Culleton? You seriously want to re-think it before its too late"
I'm thinking that could be ringing in her ears.
It appears it ain't over but its probably too late & it might hasten the One Nation implosion some commentators were predicting. I think it'll be Palmer United all over again, slow disintegration or maybe just one expulsion/resignation from One Nation and carry on as usual. The implosion may not be til the next ballot count.
One political chat today, firearms came up. I was asked how I felt about Port Arthur and immediately said "I don't subscribe to conspiracy theories if that's what you mean"
I was then challenged to research it further that it was all an evil government plot.
I pointed out that its irrelevant as the Howard Government solution was improper. Whether it be a false flag attack somehow or as I see it, exactly as the media suggested the response should not have been taking firearms away from law abiding firearms owners. The completely indisputable fact was it was portrayed as a mad gunman. My thought was, the mad gunman had no driver's licence, no firearms licence, bought illegal guns off the black market and had a mental condition that made it difficult for him to discern fact from fantasy. The Howard reaction should have been to target the black market gun trade, filthy gun smugglers and pour big buckets of cash into serious mental health. Fail, fail, fail. The response did not match the incident.
None of this was contested effectively hence it sailed through despite the angry reaction of firearms owners, there really was no proper cogent public debate or if so it was ignored. Policy came from a small set of the ruling class, facts could only be used if they aligned with the predetermined result and this has been a hallmark of policy making. Opportunity, political capital & ideology. The policy machine is built on those 3 cornerstones and facts & data have been dismissed from duty. The 2 main culprits in the decaying policy process, the Labor/Liberal Duopoly.
Whilst the Adler was clearly part of the protest vote in the Orange by-election, many other issues there also put the duopoly on the nose. Take into account the staggering size of the anti incumbent swing in that seat. SFFP may have only one by a paper thin margin, but the swing to get their is beyond Herculean. You'd think the 2 majors would be on notice, but alas, many are myopic and stuck on their own personal Tier 1 issues.
Another lady today spoke to me about firearms and referred to them as weapons. I corrected her by suggesting that its a firearm, not a weapon. A weapon only if used for killing or hurting people. Very very few firearms are used for that and only when they are, only then are they weapons. The term "weapon" is reliant on the intent. If you have firearms for shooting paper targets, you are not going armed in public, you are not brandishing a weapon. Simple things in the firearms debate that get lost, what hope do the real facts & stats have. Expect those affected most to vote a protest vote.
All in all, with a young family I'm not planning to enter politics now or in the foreseeable future.
Nor am I'm looking to start a new party to push for WA to secede from the Commonwealth...much as I half like that idea.
All in all, the suggestions and offers aren't about me, they're about the political state of play we're currently seeing. More divisive, non statesman like era, where deals are made because numbers are tight and we go from one nearly hung parliament to another.
I didn't make a prediction on Brexit, Trump or Orange, mainly because I couldn't. I did think they'd all be nearly-sorta-kinda-maybe-half close...but I didn't see those things going the way they did let alone as big as they did.
To be honest I wasn't even half close and whilst all delivered a result that out witted professional commentators, so far we only have the first result. We're yet to see the outcomes these protest votes might produce. Jury is out on our new senate too.
I can only make the simplest of predictions...
We haven't seen the last of the protest votes and most of them may not be centred on the big issues.
We haven't seen the first of the outcomes they might produce and good chance many will fall short of whatever promising hope they may have sparked in people's minds.
The duopoly is on the nose and the protest votes aren't always about the big things.
Sometimes they're just about the little people and what matters most to them.
That and some people in office forget they're also in the same family as the little people.
Chinese curse says "May you live in interesting times"
We are.
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