Saturday 28 November 2020

Trump or Biden - Disaster or Relief?

 Whatever happens, the sun will come up, the sun will go down. Night & day will go on, its a fair expectation that the sky won't fall but there probably is potential fall out.

The NY Stock market recently hit another record all time high whilst there is no new President. Some have pointed to this meaning that stability in politics leads to stock market confidence and to be fair this is very true but the stockmarket probably wasn't going to crash or dip markedly had either candidate been declared winner already.

Its still late November now & there is still no official, certified result on the 2020 Presidential election is yet. It is clear who the President Of The United States (POTUS) is now. Its Trump & it will be Trump until January 20th regardless of the election result. He remains President in title for life, but he also remains in office until the inaugeration late January 2021.

Trump isn't going to refuse to leave the White House. Some media have been pretty mischievous with this claim. Trump has said he will leave office if the Electoral College usher Biden in & all legal avenues are closed off. So the real fact is, whoever wins is still undecided and Trump is exercising his right to legal avenues as other Presidents before him have. And like or loathe him you cannot blame him, the claims there was no evidence of electoral fraud or irregularity is not correct. The vote counting was flawed and compromised. Enough fraud to steal an election? No one knows just yet but if the process is to be cleaned up then  legal avenues aren't just ok, they're vital.

One thing is for sure, Trump cannot lock himself in the White House if he loses, he won't, he can't. Its likely the US will be guarded against real hard left legislation like the New Green Deal as the Democrats won't control the congress but it will be ugly and Biden as POTUS will need heavy media support to carry him.

Other things...

1) How long would Biden as POTUS last? Would he go full term or would he have to be replaced by Kamala Harris mid term and what would that mean for their country and would their be a rippling effect world wide?

2) Which is more likely to result in rioting, civil unrest, violence? A Trump loss or a Biden loss. Well I'd guess less likelihood or violence if Trump loss. On election night and the day or so after with Biden numbers looking high and a win likely the only people who seemed to defy social distancing and take to the streets were democrat supporters celebrating. No pro Trump people clashed with them, no violence, no looting, no burning of building.

3) Trump is more likely to stand up to China whereas Biden more likely to break bread with the Asian trade aggressor. Both their respective media statements support this.

4) War - This is the big worry, Trump is one of the few POTUS in recent living memory who hasn't started a war overseas. A point lost on the "progressives" and when known, they often reject or hide it. Interesting too, Trump copped flak for the barrier wall with Mexico. He has actually been building it at a faster rate than anyone and yes, Democrats called for it when they were in power too. Trump appears very guilty of doing what he said he would. Then again, he also did move the US Embassy in Israel to their nation's capital Jeruselum. All Trump's predecessors have promised that but not done it. Jeruselum is Israel's capital, it's parliament is based there, their PM's residence is based there. All their main government heads & their offices are based there. Makes sense

5) But then Trump was pillared for children being locked in cages away from their mothers, the illegal aliens crossing the US/Mexico border & yet THAT was brought in under the Obama administration but total silence & fingers on pointed Trumps way. Since then Biden/Harris have said all illegal aliens will get free health care under their reign. They will not be deported, they will be allowed to remain with no criminal charges AND they will be granted citizenship. Now I don't think they can actually get these things passed. It'd be a disaster if they did so I don't think these things will happen. I think these are promises made to get elected, to get votes and people who voted Biden/Harris/Democrat on the basis of these promises are going to be very disappointed. Strangeest of all, the democrats will be forgiven by many of their voters. Its very odd.

6) President Elect - Biden has built himself a large pedestal to fall from. He built this "Office of President Elect" which doesn't actually exist. He started installing people to positions under his administration but officially he's not elected to office yet, he isn't even able to call himself President Elect. He technically hasn't won the election, no one has. There is no certified official result yet. 

Will Biden or Trump be President? Who knows, I don't but I do know the process is still in play, Trump hasn't left the office or preparing to transition because no result has been officially called and he's pursuing legal avenues.

If Trump wins via legal avenues he won't have stolen the election, he will have won it. If he loses the election despite legal efforts then he will have lost it fair & square and the voting fraud whilst shown to be real, wasn't enough for him to retain office.

Whatever happens, happens.
It hasn't happened yet. The fat lady hasn't sung, she's not even stageside. She's still home getting ready to go to the theatre.

Right now the best thing for their country is for leaders in each state & major city with civil disorder, chaos, looting rioting is to come down hard on anyone who is not a peacful protestor.

Trump nor Biden can over come that without over reach.