The North West Central By-Election

So as I type the Nationals look to be retaining the seat of North West Central that Vince Catania had held since 2008.
Some Vince Catania background. He was no stranger to politics before he even ran for Parliament. He is the son of Nick Catania who held the seat of Balcatta from 1989 to 1996. So Vince was a mere 19 years old when his father Nick retired from politics. 

Vince won in the Mining & Pastoral Seat (Upper House) in 2005 aged 28, at the time making him the youngest to sit in the Legislative Assemby. 3 years in 2008 later he switched to the Lower House, was preselected & won the North West Central seat for the WALabor party.
In 2009 he left the WALabor Party & wikipedia states "He cited dissatisfaction with Eric Ripper, the Labor leader, and concerns that Labor had become too "city-centric"

That's not the important point, the real thing here is what happens if you leave the ALP as an MP taking the seat with you. Be aware you cannot represent your electorate in Parliament if you're in the Labor Party. In fact you can only vote in the best interests of your electorate IF the Party room decides to gift you, on very rare ocassions a conscience vote. If you otherwise cross the floor you will be expelled from the party & targeted. Even in the very rare cases where a conscience vote is gifted a Labor MP would have to consider very careful the implications that will come anyway if they cross the floor. In the case of the Euthanasia Bill where the Premier with his massive lower house majority passed it through in record time & said publicly it needed no amendments, Labor MP Adele Farina exercised her gifted Conscience Vote and moved many amendments to the bill. 55 all up were passed & she moved quite a few. She was them pushed out in the subsequent election to an unwinnable spot on the ticket. This was a clear message to all MPs, stay in your lane, obey your party room or you go under the bus.

That's the Standard Operating Procedure and then there's hideous acts with horrible things sent through the mail to MPs who do the right thing...not sure if that's what Adele Farina copped but others have.

So leaving the ALP like Vince Catania did was no mean feat. Ian Blayney was the Liberal member for the Liberal Party & he left the Liberals whilst in office & joined the WANationals too. Now would not have been smooth sailing with great glasses of fine wine amongst his new ex-colleagues either, but there weren't attacks, abuse or dead things in the mail.

Since winning the seat & then changing parties Vince Catania would lose the seat. No.
In fact he held the seat of North West Central till he retired this year.

Here's the thing, primary vote, Vince trailed the WALabor candidate by 39 votes.
With preferences allocated & counted Vince won the seat by 259 votes.
Liberal Party didn't come close.

Deeper context, Labor in 2021 Election picked up a 27.14% swing. That is a massive gain, massive to the point of staggering...and yet they did not bother to run anyone in the North West Central election. 

Vince however picked up a 4.46% positive swing. In an election where very few non ALP lower house seats were retained or won, Vince actually picked up a positive swing & held off a Tsunami of a swing to Labor.

Even during the biggest WALabor Electoral Landslide topped with Tsunami...The WALabor Party still couldn't beat Vince Catania. He still won his seat. In an electorate that covers in excess of 820,000 square kilometres. I was told Vince often does between 150,000 & 200,000 kilometres a year in his electorate. 

So why did WALabor not run a candidate this by-election. Possibly for the same reason Vince Catania is said to have left the WALabor Party. They're too city centric.
They have the majority of Lower House seats & if they had contested it, it would have been their cleanskin candidate against other cleanskin candidates. All people who've never served in the Parliament. It would have been very level pegging but if WALabor's 2021 candidate had run again.

But guess what, she was keen to, but she was denied the chance. Here were her comments in June 2022

Nyikina and Bardi woman Cherie Sibosado says she is seeking Labor party endorsement to recontest the seat of North West Central.

“In the event that I get an opportunity to be considered I definitely am keen to put my hand up but I don’t have any decision making power at this stage,” she said. “But following the announcement by the incumbent member, there’s a lot of hype and buzz around it so an opportunity’s presenting. So we’ll just wait and see.” So sadly this Indigenous woman ended up being denied the opportunity to run. But why? Well she missed out by 259 votes. Had she done any worse than that then many would point to the shine coming off the WALabor Government. If the other candidates picked up a tiny swing its a poor result for the McGowan Government report card. Their best strategic play was dumped the candidate who picked up a 27.14% swing, not because she had no chance of winning but the chance she she might pick up a negative swing in marginal seat. Anything negative reflects on the WA Premier, the WA Cabinet & the WALabor Government. There was risk and damage with every choice but the tactical choice they took was to run no one, cop some flak at the announcement for a day or two, then relax. Exactly what happened. So to voters in North West Central...to WALabor YOU DON'T MATTER, YOU WERE A POTENTIAL THREAT TO WALABOR & YOU PROVIDE NO BENEFIT TO THE WALABOR PARTY. YOU GO UNDER THE BUS, YOU DO NOT NEED A VOICE WITHIN THE ELECTED GOVERNMENT, YOU DON'T RATE, YOU DON'T MATTER. The stark honesty is Vince Catania left the WALabor Party because the Party had become to City Centric & 13 years later Vince is still right. 13 years later and not even contesting the by-election, WALabor could not defeat Vince Catania. The WALabor Party widely well known for controlling the Press Optic with highly stage managed Press Conferences we see again, they dropped out of the contest to lessen the negative impact & take the least damaging optic. What will change in Parliament? Not a lot. Nationals have retained the seat but now have a brand new, inexperienced MP instead of a well known MP one with 13 years experience in the electorate. Merome (Mem) Beard will have the thrown-in-deep-end harsh baptism but that hard, blunt & rather massive leaning curve may well serve her well. It may well harden & temper her fast into being a good local member & a good legislator. She put her hand up which is more than the willing Cherie Sibosado was allowed to do. With some luck she may now consider what sort of city centric, controlling with over reach party she is a member of. Maybe she might see the light and join another party unafraid of running a willing person. Maybe...