The beauty of predictions, you can jag it right without knowing a thing & look a king...or you can guess it wrong and most people bar maybe 1 outa 10 people will get crabby when you're wrong. Usually yelling "You got it wrong, you're just totally anti McGowan, blah, blah, blah..."
Who knows...but what the hell lets go out on a limb and see what happens.
Mark McGowan may not see out his full term. That ends in March 2025.
Its only a few WALabor State Conferences ago, a bunch of Unions all walked out when the Premier got up to address the State Conference. It was a stunning snub.
Mark Mcgowan is not a member of any faction. The unaligned set are not real big in numbers.
All of those MPs are in McGowan's cabinet except the new MP, Stuart Aubrey MLA who won the Liza Harvey seat of Scarborough with a 16% swing. Prior to parliament worked for Roger Cook MLA & John Carey...who are both in the Left faction, from the Uited Workers Union.
If Mark McGowan were to leave, you'd expect among his possible successors there might be Saffioti, Papalia also unaligned, maybe Buti who's in the Left faction. The Left faction is made up of the Unions that walked out on the Premier & boycotted his speech.
Quigley is a no chance. Ben Wyatt is long gone & Peter Tinley a past rival is way out on the back bench.
So there's some unions with some grudges. There's also those with theories that rising stars have to take (factional) turns but remains the fact some want McGowan under a bus.
Along comes the 2nd fact. The Albo/McGowan honeymoon is soon about to end. Eastern states premiers & treasurers considering they are bleeding badly whilst McGowan tells them to go jump in a lake. How Albanese will manage the pressure is hard to say but there's going to be a big base who'll angrily get about him. A clash is coming & it may be sooner if a recession approaches.
There is the chance that McGowan will step down before seeing his term out...
Or maybe he's that enboldened that he's highly self assured he can be re-elected in 2025 & will run.
Scott Morrison is gone, Albanese is now elected. For some time it might be very cordial but the gloves may come off. Here's the thing though, quite often when the winning is so big, so long, so deep that some get emboldened & perhaps confuse their abilities & their aspirations. The shift on the Popularity-Meter has begun, the shine has come off McGowan & if the Liberals get organised WALabor could lose a number of seats next State Election if not government.
If McGowan is Premier after the 2025 Election & a raft of WALabor seats are lost, even with a majority government the pressure will massive ramp. It will get very unseemly because the Premier does not take scrutiny, inquiry or failure to comply very well.
Will he go or not? I'll take a punt. His rise was fast & went high...he's burnt bridges and gathered internal ALP foes. I think he's got to surveying his options.
If Papalia, Saffiotti & Buti start to unusually elevate their public profiles, out of the blue...then yes, it's on, someone's leaving.
So, out on the limb I think 80% chance he'll leave early or announce he's not recontesting OR he runs again and if he wins he'll regret it. I'm trying to think of another Premier who announced their retirement before an election...usually Premier's stay until they lose then leave politics.
Mark McGowan isn't most WA Premiers. The size of to-the-death non supporters is also very high.
He's seeing that the pendulum will swing back, but Liberal/Nationals aren't either well enough themselves to seize government so maybe he'll run again, win then disappear later.
I think there's no certainity...not until the other states amp up their disgust & push Albo into action.
It was very frosty between Albanese & McGowan until there was just a week or so of campaigning remaining. They may not be much of chums. But the Left here certainly aren't his chums.
And it might make a difference to how much heat the PM gets & remember which faction is the new Prime Minister is. Its not unaligned like McGowan.
This maybe gives you an idea of why some commentators are going to be watching, chomping on the popcorn. The Teals are now neutered in the lower house. The Senate may turn out to be a Greens Kill Box where the Nations suffers badly...but part of the placating will require money. Lots of it. Anthony Albanese may need little to no encouragement in bleeding off WA perhaps by a Mining Tax or some other mechanism.
Interesting times ahead & oddly Albanese leant towards USA today, last week McGowan, the China super fanboy, leant Beijing's way.
Tick, tock, tick, tock, tick, tock, tick, tock...
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