Here we sit in the shadow of a state election. The seismic shattering has subsided and soon all sides elected will slowly learn what it is they now do and how they'll do it. There's many newly elected members on every side of the house, left, right and cross bench. Some are in Government for the first time, some in opposition for the first time both needing to work out how different things are for them in their own New World. Others will find they haven't really got such a deep playbook to draw on, especially the members from the Pauline Hanson's One Nation party.
To me the landscape can be only broken down into what is & what might be and as unpredictable as the former is, its nothing compared to the latter which might be. Be it calm & beige or somewhere closer to the other end of the spectrum where its all wild & unpredictable horse trading all over the shop...well dull moments I hope for.
Really I can split it into what I hope for and sadly what's more likely. Even then, its guesses vs. guesses.
What I hope for #1 - I hope that greater and fuller rigour finds it's way into the parliament and the offices of all elected.
More likely #1 - More likely is whilst that may happen, most MPs will be inclined to follow their respective party line. I'm hoping to follow parliament enough during this next term to see who, if any, cross the floor and why. I expect none to cross the floor against their respective parties...I'm expecting the SFFP & the PHON to vote with the Liberals more often than not and if there's any exceptions, it'll be SFFP that diverts from Liberal lines.
What I hope for #2 - I hope that the 3 Upper House PHON MPs can find a good working space that is diligent, WA focused, fairness centred and sees a resounding amount of support for legislation that reflects WA's needs. That fosters best fitting solutions to problems and not be centred on political horse trading or defined party ideology...nor cause a double dissolution. I hope they keep their party platform by all means but not take directions from Pauline Hanson...she's an Australian Senator, head of their federal party. She is not the leader of the WA PHON Parliamentary Party. The fact she had dinner with Cormann & Cash to work out a preference deal every other PHON member in WA thought was completely OFF THE TABLE (as reported in the "Please Explain" 4 Corners show) worries me greatly.
More likely #2 - More likely the PHON MPs will face pressure they've not prepared for and highly likely behind close doors they'll wonder is it better to pay $25,000 exit fee & resign for the party. Chances are that although they're likely to be a different type of Liberal Party platform, the temptation to exert power & influence on bills so as to grab small miniature versions of Kingmaker Syndrome shots-in-the-arm is possible. I'm thinking more likely the PHONs will not all go full term and even more likely, whether they end up being good members or not, they won't be re-elected. I think PHON will closely follow the federal Clive Palmer path. Its doomed, its a matter of how much good they can do in the meantime or how much harm minimisation can be sustained between now & the next WA Fed election
What I hope for #3 - I hope that Upper House MPs replicate Rick Mazza MP's (SFFP) first 18 months of his first term in the Upper House. He sat on no less than 4 Sitting & Standing Committees, most notably chairing the pivotal RSPCA look-see. I hope personally that no Upper House Labor member will sit in Cabinet, they should be the house of review not part of forming legislation for the Lower House which they rubber stamp at their Upper House level.
More likely #3 - More likely Rick Mazza MP will deliver roughly the same sort of effort, the Nats & Libs will markedly lift their efforts (hopefully to the same high levels) and sadly some Labor Upper House MPs will enter cabinet and sit on no committees whatsoever.
What I hope for #4 - I had hoped Peter Watson MLC would sit in the chamber and represent the seat of Albany in decision making and also vote in Albany's best interests. I expected him to take a cabinet seat, but disappointed he'll be Speaker.
More likely #4 - Well...he's Speaker of the House so he cannot vote in the Lower House unless there's a tie. With their large majority there's no chance of that, but there's no chance anyway as Labor MPs sign a pledge to always side with the party. If they were to cross the floor, they lose their Labor Party membership straight away and if someone is a Cabinet member they'd lose that their membership and all support at the following election. Its by and large political death. The only exception is a conscience vote & not sure when WALabor had one of them last. I've asked but they won't comment at all. In Peter Watson's case, he could be his usual good rep for Albany, but he cannot vote in parliament, as Labor Speaker he doubly cannot cross the floor and it gets worse, he's the Speaker, the umpire effectively and as such plays no role in helping form government business. Albany has effectively elected a toothless tiger, we have own miniature version of the UN. "Full of sound & fury, signifying nothing"
What I hope for #5 - That the 3 largest of the Upper House cross bench members, Nats (5), PHON (3) and SFFP (1) work more closely together than either would individually would with either Liberal or Labor Party and present a more well oiled, cohesive cross bench bloc.
More likely #5 - Think Nats & to a lesser extent the SFFP will try that, there'll be pleasant noises publicly if there's any noises at all and PHON may just vote the way the Liberals each time but for differing reasons when asked. A recent "pub test" type comment I heard was "SFFP are Liberal supporters with guns and farmers with fishing rods, they despise the Nats & expect the Nats to fall in behind them at the Liberals table. Although Rick Mazza will be very guarded and discrete in comparison"
There's something in that but Rick Mazza is a very good MP with a good record and good standing when it comes to pushing rigour into policy. Rick will work well with the Nats but expect him to be very independent of the Nats. Very.
The PHON...probably very genuine folk, but are they WA or working under constant direction of a Queensland Senator?
As for our one Liberal Democrat, well journos couldn't get a hold of him, not sure if they have even yet. Calls are being fielded by a person in the Eastern Stats, a controller/handler. Worrying sign.
He's all for opposing and voting against new taxes and anything which threatens WA citizens liberties. He'll be of help with the SFFP agenda items but going to a while before the LDP effect unfolds and is known.
Could be all smooth sorta sailing in the Upper House, might be orderly and already have sorted out. Not expecting a cluster fluff of road blocks. So that'd be good.
We need good stable strong governance.
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