We don't know is the short answer & it doesn't matter, but there are things to ponder & connecting these two does seem unusual but unconnected as they are, they share spce here for a reason.
Labor, Liberals & Nationals have organisational problems. Deep set & well known. The first calls here for the WA Nationals to Regroup, Review, Review, Recalibrate & Reboot were well prior to the March 2017. Close to 2 years before. They, like the Liberals & even the Labor Party are not where they should be, they're all in Boom/Bust territory, they're more driven by re-election than (metaphor over use warning) nailing the colours to the mast, choosing actual hills to fight & die upon etc.
Set values seem relegated to bland or vagues motherhood statements whilst in Labor's case the party platform runs into 100s of pages with thousands of promises to many differing & opposing groups. Many undeliverable.
Some parties, there is a policy wasteland, there is nothing except (as has been described elsewhere) little more than "profoundly vague, vaguely profound but largely nothing"
Justin Langer, is he the answer to the WA Liberal Party ? The majority of won't know yet. If he isn't,as the rusted on Labor Brigade say, you'd think Labor would welcome & even encourage it. So there's that.
Fact, I & perhaps you know of Langer's cricket prowess & skill but we have no idea about his political smarts or if its another angle of expertise the Party lacks that he has in spades.
We don't know.
Parties have chosen rock stars & fame names to run before. Peter Garret arguably sold out some of his values to become a federal Labor member & minister. Reverted when Midnight Oil went touring again.
All parties have had ex Sport stars in the election ranks with varying success. Varying success on election day & varying success in office.
So for Langer & the Liberals, watch this space. He may well add to their regrouping, their rebuild and their new brighter future.
They will have to start by setting out if they adhere to Conservative Values & if so, exactly what are they.
As for Vince Catania and/or the Nationals...
Well for Vince it was a tough road throughout his political career & much to the deep chagrin of some Labor & Nationals he's navigated the potholes & managed to come out on top in the eyes of most people in his electorate. I don't know Vince to the extent I can ask "So why are you really leaving?" but 17 years in an electorate of 800,000+ km2 and doing well over 100,000 road miles a year, distanced from your wife & kids...it must take its toll.
Labor will complain & will with a heighten level of spite. He left their party & went with his electorate in another party. He was pre-selected & was re-elected every election since. It has been a source of constant embarassment for the WA Labor Party ever since. Its VERY clear Vince became & remained Labor's Kryptonite ever since. Worse still upon leaving Labor & copping some atrocious attacks including being delivered actual dead rats there is another downside for Labor. A number of Labor faithful in that electorate followed Vince over. Some of his earliest pro Labor supporters on polling booths followed him to continue that work with him whilst wearing the Nationals colours. It was a harsh slap.
Another "worse still" (should number these) Vince may have narrowly won his seat in March 2017 but he was one (possibly the only) Liberal/National MP to actually have an increased swing towards him in the 2021 election. During their biggest Labor landslide in WA Electoral History...Labor still couldn't beat Vince.
On top of that people are now beginning to talk about how Labor operates internally & how its always been argey bargey but its never been like it is now. Its almost the party for co-enablers. You can reach the top if you're prepared to show undying loyalty, the ability to dump whatever standards you are to obey the party, go vicious on dissenters & follow the party's directions on how to vote on everything.
Yes, as a Labor MP you are not "You Local Voice In The McGowan Team" as billboards boasted prior to March 2021. You are the party's voice telling the electorate what the party has decided.
If you were to cross the floor in the best interests of your electorate, you will be suspended briefly prior to being expelled from the party. Your staff (most likely financial party members) would be pressured to leave their job & offered alternative jobs within the party. People within your party, people who became family friends that attended your wedding, your family birthdays, chrsitinings, funerals...they would declare "you're dead to me" and look at any opportunity to attack you privately or publicly.
Liberals & Nationals...no you certainly can cross the floor but not sure where they have. And yes they have factions, yes they have Machiavellan players & shafters from factions or singular thugs. The 6 then cabinet ministers I asked a tough question ALL gave a similar reply.
Question - "On what issue or policy would you cross the floor in the best interests of your electorate or your state?"
To date everyone gave a very similar version along the lines of...
"I take my cabinet role very seriously..."
"The way to influence Cabinet is to be in Cabinet"
"Its purely a numbers game, I can't rule over anyone so best I can do is fight for what I think is right"
"If I leave cabinet less fight for my electorate is the result, its best I stay in Cabinet no matter the actual result"
Of course, no one can or is able to see if their elected MP in any cabinet is fighting for them, is speaking up or even attends let alone stays awake.
Question - "Would you be ok with Cabinet minutes being released or comments you make recorded & then released to show your position?
"No confidentiality is paramount if Cabinet is to work, sadly I have to continue depsite whatever advances I fight for and might not achieve"
Given the higher salary & allowances whilst in Cabinet & the ability to not die on any hill at all for your electors I should have put in a puke warning.
But getting onto the other biggy...the byelection for Vince Catania's seat of North West Central.
Talk Labor won't run. I think they will but I think whatever the decision, it'll be close.
For Labor its pros & cons.
Cons -
- If they lose it shows they couldn't beat Vince Catania whilst he was in Parliament & their party machine riding the largest Labor Tidal Wave in WA history still couldn't win the seat.
- To win it they will have to spend money there like they never have before. An awful lot of money, its a marginal seat & shine has been coming off Labor lately. They will have to pay for some of the very things Vince's has been fighting for and some argue Labor have deliberately denied that electorate. There's potetnial political blow back because it's going to look like Labor have been punishing the seat & now trying to lure it over.
- If Labor don't run a candidate, it will appear they're admitting they had abandoned the electorate & Vince's decision to leave Labor to properly represent his electorate was 100% vindicated & pretty much indisputable. The spotlight & optic that then barrels down on the Labor Party ethos is clear & very damning.
Pros.
- If they win, their Lower House number go from 53 out of 59 total & the opposition goes from 6 to
Its of no consequence in the Parliament except to load up the opposition with more work in theory & lessen critical thought on Government decisions. Their bragging rights are very limited - Its highly unlikely but the Liberal Party win North West Central, the Opposition Leader could change, more disruption for the opposition.
That hope is gone now.
Labor MPs currently favour Mia Davies over both David Honey & Libby Mettam. They will want Mia Davies to continue as Opposition Leader, it strengthens Labor's ability to ignore the opposition. Liberal Party are their greater enemy.
As it turns out, Liberals have polled very poorly in the electorate. It's yet to be seen if the voters want to punish Nationals or Labor over whatever greives them or they see as problems. Labor in a very ugly set of outbursts, both unParliamentary & unprofessional by Sue Ellery & Mark McGowan went to town on Vince Catania. They both fouled the standing of their office with the outburst of ugly intolerance. That might lessen their chances of winning the seat by getting so very stabby on a well liked MP who is well regarded by both Nationals & Labor people in the electorate.
Labor sticky point...run or don't run? Danger doing it vs danger not.
Will it be a Nats v Libs run out & if so can Labor preference Nationals to keep Libs away from Opposition Leadership?
I'll take Vince at his word & that he's retiring now because he's now spent, tank empty, all out & needs to be a bigger part of his family, that his family is now the priority after 17 years.
Public Service with somewhere between 1 million & 2 million road miles as a MP.
Labor is in a tricky position politically & they've already handled it badly.
However, not losing sight, if Justin Langer is the answer or at least the small catalyst to rebuilding the Liberal Party then WA needs a similar political player to recalibrate the Labor Party & the National Party, get them all to set out very clearly their values, delete the profoundly vague motherhood statements & get them all to choose a hill to die on.
Get the Parliament where it needs to be, REAL Conservatives vs WISE Progressives who come together, battle their contest of ideas & engage concession drive for a best solution on any issue that's in the best interests of WA as a whole. Not tribes run by a few dropping trinkets on the underlings to gain full control with little transperancy or accountibility.
Final note - Either way, we should all wish Vince Catania the very best in his new life phase, the best joy & success in his now much more enhanced life as a father & a husband. As well as whatever professional pursuit he embarks upon. Yes, I'd say the same repsectful things about Sue Ellery & Mark McGowan when they retire but I do admit...
I wish that opportunity had presented itself some years ago, but today is fine.
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