Saturday 23 March 2019

Gun Crime in Australia

It's a murky area with some statistics and some glaring omissions, that is, we don't know how many illegal firearms are in the community, we can only guess.

We also do know how many gun crimes in this country are committed with legally owned firearms vs illegal firearms but its rarely ever mentioned and often completely omitted. Illegal firearms includes stolen firearms, traded or grandfathered firearms owned well before registration (and as such don't exist officially), smuggled in firearms or back yard made.

In the case of smuggled in, there's no way of knowing how many there are but we know several firearms used in well known homicides were never legally sold or imported here. We know that police did undercover a smuggling operation that brought in large number of Glock semi auto pistols most of which remain unrecovered. We know police seized a South African made "Street Sweeper" which have never been sold or imported legally into WA.

We also don't know how many back yard gunsmiths there are. Police have caught several, one in WA was making full auto pistols with the simple blow back design principle.

So getting the complete picture is difficult and that can lead to undue fear or even the deliberate use of undue fear to create regulations to problems that may or may not exist.

In the case of reported gun crime in Australia, there's this statistical chart from University of Sydney which its worth remembering is not exactly pro gun. Some of the academics involved would like to see all firearms outlawed completely with only the police & armed forces having firearms.

So you can see easily there's a definite falling trend line in gun crime. Yes you can focus in on a few select years & create spikes but take into consideration the rise in population in Australia.

Gun Crimes in Australia...
1987   -   694
2016   -   238
(Around 65% reduction)


Australia's Population
1987  -   16,263,874
2016  -   24,127,200
(Around 48% increase)

Population increased by 7,863,326 and gun deaths went down by 456

To put that in a different perspective, over that time it's gone from 4.26 people per 100,000 to 0.986 per 100,000 people.

Now look deeper. Gun death statistics used in this graph include suicides, accidents, unknown or undetermined cause and police against criminals. Suicides are generally removed from gun crime as the cause of the incident isn't the gun, the gun is just the method. There's no solid evidence that proves anyone suiciding with gun wouldn't have if a gun was not available. There is the other uncomfortable fact that as terribly heart breaking as suicide is, it's not an act against another.

Now some people want guns used in crime to have stricter regulation.
For the incidents that involve illegal firearms, by all means. Remember though penalties don't usually deter people from criminal acts, the likelihood of getting caught does. However that being the case, you have a good chance of getting caught & being executed if you get trafficking drugs in a number of Asian countries & yet we still see plenty of people still taking the risk. Some get executed, some get lucky and are released after long jail terms in prisons you probably wouldn't want to be in for a week.

And yet people still break the law.

I think no matter how strict the laws are, no matter how heavy the penalties are and no matter how great the likelihood of getting caught is some people will still own illegal firearms.

There is a strong body of evidence that shows more firearms in the community does not automatically mean more crime. Most gun homicides in the USA involve drugs and gangs. Some states have high gun ownership and low crime, some have low ownership & high crime, some have high ownership & high crime. There is no automatic predictor.

There's some interesting research matter on gun crime in Australia here at...
https://aic.gov.au/publications/tandi/tandi361

If you want to spare yourself the long read, here's the conclusion.

Short sharp facts...
  1. Firearms are used in around 20 percent of homicides committed each year in Australia (Davies & Mouzos 2007).

  2. Arguments over money or drugs represented the primary alleged motive behind handgun homicides, and accounted for almost three in 10 homicides committed with a handgun.

  3. In 2005-06, firearm homicides fell to their lowest level in 13 years

  4. Since 1992-93, firearm homicide as a proportion of all homicides has halved, continuing a general downward trend in firearm homicide that began in the early 1980s.

  5. Fact is the most heavily regulated part of firearms in Australia (and WA) are handguns & most guns used were illegal at the time of the crime.

  6. Worst year for Suicide by Firearms was 1915 - 4.03 people per 100,000 people
    Same year, the number of Non Firearms Suicides was 9.166 people per 100,000 

  7. Lowest year of Firearms Homicides was 2004 - 0.1592 people per 100,000 & has been up & down annually since the all time high in 1984 - 0.802 people per 100,000
    But since then it's been a downward trend line.

Some people are calling for the ban on recreational hunting, a call which says firearms can only be used by professionals (pest controllers, primary production) AND for use at the Gun Range.
That means no recreational hunting at all.

First up, those that illegally hunt on Crown Land, state forests, reserves are not hunters, they're poachers. They're breaking the law just as they would be trespassing onto any property they don't own, without permission with the purpose of shooting.

Poaching is banned, its a criminal activity. By all means increase those penalties if need be.

If someone has a permission to shoot on a property, all is good. Its legal and we should not over regulate those doing the right thing, or regulate them out of existence.

Do we lose track of who shooters are after the licence is issued?
No. WA Police have access to the database and can see all a firearm owners details. Names, contact details and list of all their registered firearms. Can all police easily access the actual residential address very easily? Unsure. I think is this were accessed a red flag would be raised & rightly so as a matter of process.

Its also worth repeating that gun deaths were descending before & after Port Arthur.

Remains a fact if we truly have a gun crime problem its criminals with illegal guns that is the lion's share that needs attention.
 

Facts not Feelings - Its a thing, a preferred proper thing.

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