Yes its a bait like title, but having said that I'm leaning one way already even though its hard to remain unbiased and disconnect heart in favour of the head.
The fortunate part for commentators in the media is they can point to their predicted winner & when they're horribly wrong, its forgotten fairly quickly. If they were able to pull a real rabbit out of the hat and accurately predict a real surprise they'll be lauded as smart & astute political observers for a while...then it'll be forgotten.
So although I could toss a coin a few times, I'll try to make an educated guess...based on a personal reason of what I think...repeat think is reasoning.
The Rod Culleton side show is still rolling but most likely drawing to a close soon. The Rod Culleton Effect at the next election is lessening, or it was until two Pauline Hanson One Nation candidates (PHON) hit the news in less than flattering fashion. One promoting anti LGBT views, the other saying the dead Syrian toddler who's drowned body was photographed on the beach is "alive & well" and that the Port Arthur atrocity was a staged conspiracy.
So there's a Tier 2 party that's going to need major repair very soon to be a huge influence on the WA election. They still may influence it though even in the current decaying state.
Their votes will primarily be "The Deplorables" those that are fed up with the Liberal/Labor Duopoly. There's really four parties who qualify as Tier 2 Parties, Nats, Greens, SFFP & One Nation.
Greens will be more likely to preference Labor if the Greens we're placed 3rd or worse in any given seat.
WANats, the Shooters Fishers & Farmers & One Nation are more likely to preference the Liberal party if they find themselves outside the 2 horse race. One Nation is stating its not Preferencing anyone...but that could change in the next few weeks but, still there's a good chance for an irony laden backfire for the "Deplorable" voters.
They may vote elsewhere to try & protest against the Liberal/Labor Duopoly but in doing so, they might actually end up helping get the Liberals over the line.
Labor is ahead by the bookies and many commentators & it may work out that way, but I think its still very likely that Colin Barnett will be returned to form government with possibly the slightest decrease in numbers. Yes, I'll call it...maybe Colin Barnett returned by the barest of margins, less than now. What was the final bit of deciding reasoning that tipped my prediction that way?
It was the toss of the coin. So I tossed the coin and it landed Liberal...so with the most unscientific method to decide I think the Deplorables via the NatsWA, the SFFP & PHON will get Colin over the line, make him Premier for 12 months or less as he'll retire citing health/spending more time with the family etc and Liza Harvey will take over.
There...I said it.
And if its dead on wrong...everyone will forget after a while.
Phew :-)
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