Monday, 13 January 2025

Reforming the Firearms Reforms - Danger Time is December 2024 to March 2025

December to March 8th Election Day is the period of time that is the most dangerous for the Law Abiding Firearms Owners wanting drastic reforms of the new Firearms Act. It holds the Christmas New Years break, a burst of holiday season for most people. There's a State Election & a Federal Election. State set for March 8th Federal we don't know but it must be close to the State election or at one point it was going to be very close which would explain the period of time when there was public squealing they might clash. One Labor senator or rather now an ex Labor senator let slip a comment that made it sound the 2 elections were close. Until its called, its all just conjecture.
 
The WA Parliament will not sit before Polling Day & likely won't sit until late March. So there is a lot of political movement, a lot of funding announcements for campaigning purposes & nothing mentioned on what's important to voters. Also whilst a new Upper Hosue will be elected on March 8th, the old MPs will retain their seats in the Upper House for a while until hand over.

Those not regularly involved or engaged in Australian Politics are stuck in what they think is a wrongfully silent vacuum. I'll come out and say it, some people will get frustrated & MAKE S**T UP out of frustration.
Others, very much keen to help the Party in Government will start & stoke fires that are loads of bulldust.
Its the most dangerous time for us & best time for a Government that will be wanting us to divide us amongst ourselves.

All of that is clearly out of step with stakeholders actual needs & seems to completely undermine whatever efforts had preceded the December to March period. Some of those efforts precede this dangerous times by many years.

It's bad enough that the oddly inaccurate named Firearms Reform Act was actually some of the worst over reach based on very little precise problem identification & evidential research in the so called "solutions".
Yes THAT is bad enough but what's worse is some very genuine people are loudly exercising their right of Freedom of Speech whilst doing so with Freedom of thought, fact or considered knowledge.

First, lets get it straight, yes there are definitely cases of very Pro Labor Party people threading into Pro Fair Firearms Legislation FaceBook groups and there are some others who are very passionate, very impatient & very grumpy people who are genuine but very misinformed. The Govtrolls want a splitting of the united effect & others may inadvertantly help do that by either trying to get themselves elected in a minor party, trying to get a minor party candidate elected or trying to get a rival lobbying organisation advanced or some just want to let off steam & haven't been all that politically engaged since...well some since ever.

These things can become a wedge. The Wedge Tactic is the one real solid go to from the Labor playbook that's worked & worked really well going back years, decades. Goes back longer than I can remember. Precedes the Burke era.
We have 3 main parties which are really 2 opposing sides (or supposed to be) 
One side is Labor & the other is Liberal & Nationals.
One side merely has to try & wedge the 2 teams on the opposing side & job done.

Labor are brilliantly at the Wedge because it is often employed internally. They are gifted at it.
I have seen it used brilliantly by wedging WAFarmers & PGA going back to late 70s early 80s.
Throw crumbs to one, throw more crumbs to the other, keep them fierce rivals, one's not going to be that happy. Once they start snapping at each other a minister simply sees the right predetermined trigger point is reached & announces "There are stakeholders here not agreeing & I have have to make a decision now so I will and..." and then its the "all along" Labor decision that stakeholders at the coal face do not want. Rival groups get the blame for squabbling against each other, minister pulls the decision they were ALWAYS going to pull, job done. Minister is the villain who's let off, WAFarmers & PGA get the blame.
For Labor..."It worked again, can you believe it? How easy"

Now we're seeing it all over again on many differing levels & the Govt aligned, the good but naive people are both contributing to helping Divide & Conquer.

Just some of the things that are being spouted that are wrong.

1) Liberals are Labor Lite, Labor & Liberal are 2 wings of the same bird...
Patently false & misleading. One is a socialist party, the other is quite the opposite. One is very much for bigger Government, more control by government says they're a Labour Movement First party but actually Socialist. The other is in favour of smallerbut more efficient Govt that gets out of the road where ever positive & possible. Keen on ensuring that MPs & Bureaucrats remain public servants that actually serve the public. Some pushing this are the same are good people very frustrated as yes both parties have learned further left over the years. But some pushing the Labor-Lite lie are clever Pro Labor people who know that if people abandon the 2 main parties, the preferences can more easily find their way to Labor not the Liberals or Nationals. In a previous election the SFFP sent preferences to Labor in several seats. Also if a person can be coaxed to ignore Greens, Labor, Nats & Liberals it is Labor who have the slight edge. To get changes that are fair, reasonable & workable you have to change the Government

To change Government WA needs BOTH Liberals & Nationals to do very well & collectively win 30+ seats.

2) Promoting a Nationals Government or at least a Liberal-National Coaltion with Nationals being the dominant Party.
Not even remotely possible. Could it be possible? Yes. Not in this election & not in any of the elections that the WA Nationals have contested since 1914 (Under the name Country Party then).
To date its actually been completely impossible. But labelling Nationals as the good guys & Liberals bad actually favours Labor by undermining the Liberal Party.
Government is formed in the Legislative Assembly, aka the Lower House. 
There are only 3 parties likely to elect candidates in the Lower House. Labor, Liberal & Nationals. If Greens, PHON, SFFP or any of the other minnows get a candidate elected in the Lower House it'll be a massive event in WA's history.
Labor can form Government on its own, Liberals & Nationals need a Lib/Nat coalition or alliance.
Wreck one of the two, you return Labor. That simple.

To change Government WA needs BOTH Liberals & Nationals to do very well & collectively win 30+ seats.

3) Forming Government in the WA Parliament 
There are 59 seats in the Lower House where Government is formed.
A party needs to win 30 as one MP will likely be lost to the position of Speaker of the House. They can & do vote BUT normally they don't, normally its a casting a vote during a division. So you need to win a minimum of 30 seats to have the majority to form Government.
This election Nationals have (as of today) only 17 candidates in the WA Legislative Assembly.
So if people are bagging the Liberals & promoting the Nationals as THE alternative and that ends up being effective across most electorates then Liberals & Nationals are heading to opposition. 

Nationals have slowly been losing seats in both houses over the last few elections. They now have no MPs north of Geraldton. The only new seat in the last few elections was Geraldton, that was a defection from the Liberal Party & that's since been lost. Plus Nationals are running candidates in electorates they have never run in before so unlikely to win many of those new to them seats.

To change Government WA needs BOTH Liberals & Nationals to do very well & collectively win 30+ seats.

4) Only One Party Supports Lawful Firearms Owners.
Rubbish. Silly, false & misleading. Not at all helpful to anyone except some of those trying to get elected but are up against high odds.
Liberals & Nationals are both committed to fixing the Firearms laws. BOTH.
So too are PHON, SFFP, Legalise Marijuanna Party (Dr Brian Walker MLC is a shooter & fought against the bill going through the Upper House) so too Independents Louise Kingston MLC & Ben Dawkins MLC
It morphing to "the first party supporting shooting community"
That too is not helpful & incorrect as it is irrelevent. Again...

To change Government WA needs BOTH Liberals & Nationals to do very well & collectively win 30+ seats.

5) Liberals won't repeal the laws, they only want to review them.
Yes, this is correct but is used as a reason to avoid voting Liberal who we need to do well to change Government.
Its the right thing for the Liberals to promise because that's all there is.
To repeal a party needs to control BOTH houses of Parliament. WA Labor changed the Upper House Electoral process. It used to be 6 regions with 6 MPs and it has always worked well.
Labor changed it to ONE STATEWIDE ELECTORATE. Its a Gerry mander to help elect more Labor MPs in the Upper House.
Labor might not win control of the Upper House but the Liberal Party is unlikely to. Likely it will be Labor controlled or it will be a hung chamber.

Repealing the Act has been left off the table because it's never been on the table. They're committed to a review & the 32,234 signature ePetition to get the Firearms Bill into the Legislation Committee was a Liberal Party ePetition. Despite one Nats Candidate briefly claiming it as a Nats initiative.
So Liberal Party have properly promised what is most likely. 
Somehow they are still getting criticism for "review not repeal" when they can only review & cannot promise a repeal of the Act

This is made odder still because if they solely controlled both houses & did hit the repeal button...they still have to have a review. Some Nationals said they will repeal it. Yeah ok, you haven't got enough candidates to form Government let alone control both houses, you need the Liberals to help change Government & they're set on review & amend. That does not make any sense.

Due to the ePetition, you know for a start the Liberals are clear, any amendment Bill that comes, they'll want their own bill to got to the Legislation Committee.
Repeal is not on the table because its never been on the table. Many are still missing this & undermining chances of a Liberal-National Govt.

To change Government WA needs BOTH Liberals & Nationals to do very well & collectively win 30+ seats.

6) The WA Gun Rally -
No I don't support it. It will serve as a wedge for the Minister & the Government to exploit.
I think it has no positive benefits on offer. It will be an opportunity for the media to cast an unfriendly light on Law Abiding Firearms Owners. Its organised by the Shooters Union which is based in Queensland & the minister has clearly said he will not recognize an eastern states group on WA legislation. Agree or disagree, that's correct approach as a minister.
Yes as a West Aussie you can join, but read their constitution & then try to attend its main meetings. They are board meetings in Queensland.

It is a Not For Profit but its also a small company limited by guarantee meaning it can only be owned by 50 people or less. Now granted this may have changed but that's the only guts of the matter we can find to date. We can assume they chose this structure as it makes them an NFP that isn't incorporated in one state, they'll be recognized as a "registered entity" by ASIC as a Not For Profit. That means they're a NFP like any other but they come under the Corporation Act & they can operate across state borders.

But if you join the rally & you may well have a great day & input (?) but as a member, you don't own the company. I'll be interested to see what level of time the media devotes in the news programmes & how positive, negative, accurate they are.

To be honest it's best outcome is (regardless of who speaks & what they say) it goes ahead and media don't show up at all. If they show up, there is a substantial likelihood it will paint the lawful firearms owners badly.
Some will disagree. There is criticism its brand building & nothing more. Possibly but cannot see the benefits & they're not really mentioned.

Apparently its poster says it will be having speakers who are leaders in the WA Shooting community, but not seen who they are yet. That the speakers will tell attendees how to change the over reach laws.
Well thats already well known. There are several options but first & foremost one is the best & simplest solution and have to happen regardless due to a myriad of other debacles...

To change Government WA needs BOTH Liberals & Nationals to do very well & collectively win 30+ seats. 

7) We need to raise money to start a class action?
Maybe, but those pushing this are never sure which court they aim to be heard in, on what grounds & how long & how much it will cost. Some have said its unconstitutional but when asked is that under the Australian Consitution or WA's constitution Act there is silence.
Then the comments we need to employ a QC. 

There are no QCs or Queens Councel anymore since Queen Elizabeth passed away. They are either King's Councel or Senior Councel or often colloquially referred to as "Silks"
Think its more likely if you think you have a case on whatever grounds you engage a very good law firm & they will assess it first and if/when required they will get a KC/SC involved. 
Just because you haven't read or heard anything DO NOT make the mistake that this avenue hasn't been properly explored & potentially prepared. I honest do not know.
I haven't been told anything one way or the other but no one smart threatens legal action publicly or shows all their cards up front to the court rival. They build whatever strategy they're building & if there's a trigger for legal action, it will be launched without any warning.
In any case legal action may or may not be beneficial (don't guess, we'd all need very good legal advice) & were it launched it would costly & drawn out, possibly for years.
So again the prime focus, the best workable approach is to again remember to focus on...

To change Government WA needs BOTH Liberals & Nationals to do very well & collectively win 30+ seats.

8) But Liberals all voted for the Firearms Bill.
No, false & misleading. in the LA one voted for, one against, one abstained.
In the Upper House 3 voted with the Government, one Abstained, one voted Against I one I'm unsure so I'll find out for sure & edit this.
The Party positions was to vote with the Government which is often a convention. Really favoured when the vote makes no difference & wastes no Parliamentary time UNLESS a division is called. Both cases, it was. So arguably time was wasted to record that which made no difference. Several broke from convention (they're allowed to in the Liberal Party) & people have demonised the Liberals ever since. I haven't go them to read but apparently possibly 2 motions on firearms have been passed over the last few years at State Council (their board meeting effectively) that support Lawful Firearms owners. The motions supported proper legislation & criticised Labor's efforts. I was told by one Liberal one motion was passed at State Conference (their AGM meeting effectively) & another Liberal said he thought there was one in 2024 & one before in 2023 that supported law abiding firearms owners.
Hope I get to confirmation on exactly did or didn't occur. In any case, the way they voted was actually meaningless & irrelevent. Beware those who blame that vote or say the leader has to go. It's kinda rubbish. As for the future of Leader of the Liberal Party, none of my business, the party room decides that & no one else. They are irrelevent points if you want the laws fixed...its simple

To change Government WA needs BOTH Liberals & Nationals to do very well & collectively win 30+ seats.

One last point am I a Liberal or National Party shill?
Hardly, but I'll be ok with being regarded an Anti Labor shill or anti dud legislation shill or anti over reach supporter.

Vote for whoever you want but please remember for positive change on firearms or a dozen other debacles we need to change the Government. 
Government is formed in the Lower House
Whichever party is the next Government they need to win win a minimum of 30 of the 59 seats. So in case you haven't got the point yet...

To change Government WA needs BOTH Liberals & Nationals to do very well & collectively win 30+ seats.

We have to change the Government, everything else is just angels you cannot see dancing on the head of a pin. Very cool, very interesting, captures your attention & yet irrelevent & pointless to changing the Government.